There are five candidates confirmed, set to run against each other and eventually replace Phil Fontaine at the Assembly of First Nations. Two are considered front runners, possible or likely to win. Two others are considered never-minds; not even also-rans. And one is a bit of a dark horse with a slim chance of moving up to serious contender. Their names are here, and you can decide for yourselves who fits my three categories.

Clue? Which candidates does Indian Affairs consider the least offensive. That, sadly, is one of the prerequisites for the job, and the band council chiefs with an AFN vote know it. Don’t believe me? Remember how quickly Ovide and Matthew found themselves on the government’s shit list, leading to cuts to programs, which precipitated grumbles within the ranks. It’s called a pattern of behaviour, behavioural conditioning, and some other much less polite terms that I can think of.